Mosley's case, meanwhile, has stalled in New York. Unless he really hangs on into his 40s, he'll finish as the second-most-productive tight end in history, behind Tony Gonzalez. But history suggests that his on-field performance makes him a Hall of Fame lock. Making sense of Mahomes' deal Quarterbacks like Ken Anderson, Boomer Esiason and Steve McNair won league MVP without earning enshrinement. Peppers, who played for the Panthers (twice), Bears and Packers, ranks fourth on the NFLs all-time sack list with 159 and was also on the Halls All-Decade Team for the 2000s and 2010s. The 2020 No. DeCastro has five consecutive Pro Bowl appearances and two All-Pro nods; if Faneca can't get in with nine consecutive Pro Bowl appearances and five All-Pro shots, DeCastro still has a lot of work to do. While Witten, 38, is years removed from his peak, he's going to finish his career with 11 Pro Bowl appearances and two first-team All-Pro nods. ln the running (40% to 69%): RB Alvin Kamara, DE Cameron Jordan, CB Marshon Lattimore. As he turns 30 in September, Gilmore probably needs at least two more seasons in which he has a credible case as the best cornerback in football -- or a really long peak. I addressed this in my MVP column in July. 19 Won't: Maurice Jones-Drew Julio Jones (2011-17): 8,076, two-time All-Pro, will be a Hall-of-Famer Jerry Rice (1985-89): 7,370, Hall-of-Famer, greatest receiver of all time Randy Moss (1998-2003): 7,258, Hall-of-Famer Torry Holt (1999-2004): 7,147, most yards through five years in NFL history There aren't any Dolphins who would appear to have greater than a 10% chance of making the Hall of Fame. He shared a receivers room with four Hall-of-Famers and caught balls from a pair of Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks in Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner while playing in eight post-season games . He's going to get in on the first ballot. James was a first-team All-Pro as a rookie, and while he missed 11 games in 2019 with a foot injury, he should get back on track in 2020. All logos are the trademark & property of their owners and not Sports Reference LLC. Sherman has a strong case as the best cornerback of the decade and was an essential piece of what was likely the best defense of the decade. One more Pro Bowl would probably do the trick. Judging safeties on interceptions is stupid, but we haven't evolved beyond that point. Early in a player's career, I'm also comfortable using draft status as an estimate of talent until they establish themselves as pros, which will lead to some very inexperienced players making this list. He ranks seventh all-time in receiving touchdowns (116), 30th in yards (11,841) and 17th in receptions (955). All of these guys have something in their favor, but it isn't enough to propel them to meaningful consideration as of yet. Unlike Gurley, McCaffrey didn't win Offensive Player of the Year or make a deep playoff run. 3 pick. In the running (40% to 69%): S Jamal Adams. Question, Comment, Feedback, or Correction? (Justin Simmons, who was one of the NFL's best safeties a year ago, is still waiting for his first Pro Bowl appearance.). Bakhtiari, likewise, is blocked by Tyron Smith. The former Philadelphia Eagles great and St. Louis Rams star will become the 28th and 29th wide receivers to be honored with a place in Canton, OH. Mack is entering what is likely to be his final season with the Falcons. Randy Moss. But as a running back who has been above average or good seemingly forever, he's getting in. Joe Fortenbaugh breaks down why Julio Jones is the safer bet over DeAndre Hopkins to lead the league in receiving yards. Grading the Jamal Adams trade Both Bosa and Kittle could make this tier placement look stupid if they have big seasons in 2020. Lock (100%): LB Von Miller. He joined the Chronicle in January 2015 as the online sports editor. The Hall site draws a distinction, interestingly, between wide receivers and ends. Sensing that many people might disagree with me, I decided to post a poll on Twitter. Houston probably had the best shot of these four earlier in his career, given that he made four consecutive Pro Bowls and led the league with 22 sacks in 2014, but he hasn't been dominant since dealing with a knee injury between 2015 and 2016. Ryan's case is trickier. The others are Moss, Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper. And thanks to coach Kelvin Sampson and the assistants he Solomon: DeMeco Ryans the right coach at the right time, 3 pressing questions facing new Astros GM Dana Brown, Jabari Smith Jr. growing up in NBA with an assist from his father, Poor parent behavior is driving high school sports refs away. After missing the postseason for the first time in four years, the Green Bay Packers will now spend their offseason with one topic at the forefront of their internal conversations: the future of Aaron Rodgers. Inside linebackers generally need to become Defensive Player of the Year candidates and earn multiple first-team All-Pro appearances to get serious consideration for Canton, but Edmunds is off to a great start. I haven't included players who I believe have no more than a 10% chance of making it into the Hall. In the running (40% to 69%): C Maurkice Pouncey, LB T.J. Watt. Pro Football Reference Hall of Fame Monitor, Frequently Asked Questions about the NFL and Football, Pro-Football-Reference.com Blog and Articles, Subscribe to Stathead Football: Get your first month FREE. Through Week 9 of the 2019 season, Evans has played 85 career games. Edelman's career as a starter really didn't begin until he was 27, so while his case is built on postseason performance, I still don't think he has the regular-season production needed to supplement a case. The superstar edge rusher has made the Pro Bowl every year except 2013, when he was suspended before going down with a torn ACL. Erica Farber and Bill Siemering, prominent figures in U.S. commercial radio and public radio, respectively, are among eight new members of the Radio Hall of Fame. Elliott has already won two rushing titles across his first four seasons, and that might be enough on its own. Timing can matter for players, and it has been weird for Suh. The shrine in Canton, Ohio, is one that hasnt been easy to gain membership in through the years. Peterson, fifth all-time in rushing yards (14,918), is a good bet for election on the first ballot. Jets, Browns tapped for 2023 NFL Hall of Fame Game originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago. Three different Cowboys defenders make this list, and you could make a case for Jaylon Smith, too. Likely (70% to 99%): QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones. Charley Taylor<br>1964-1975, 1977 . If you think this is too early for the 2019 seventh overall pick, think again. Subscribe to Stathead Football: Get your first month FREEYour All-Access Ticket to the Pro Football Reference Database. Lock (100%): DE J.J. Watt. Try selecting a different location. What happens next is critical for Gurley, who would have seemed on the road to Canton after taking home Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2015 and adding an Offensive Player of the Year award two years later. These NFL wide receivers do not count toward our list of 10 worthy Hall of Famers. Watson has earned Pro Bowl nods in each of his first two full seasons as a starter, which is easier for quarterbacks than it is for most other positions. Gates numbers compare very favorably with those of the nine tight ends in the Hall. The one-time tight end has made nine Pro Bowls and was a first-team All-Pro twice. Both are among the all-time leaders in every notable stat at their positions. Running backs mean less than they have in the past, but Terrell Davis just made the Hall for what really amounted to a three-season stretch as the best running back in football. In his other two seasons, he racked up a combined 23 sacks and made a pair of Pro Bowls. A portion of ticket purchases is a tax-deductible charitable donation to the Museum . I'm right there in the 50/50 range. The 49ers' two-decade-plus string of Pro Bowl quarterbacks and near-two-decade run of employing an all-time receiving talent abruptly stopped in 2004. 2 pick was a four-time Pro Bowler and a three-time All-Pro during his five seasons in Detroit. Jaguars won't spend big, but here are five players they could target in free agency, 2023 NFL franchise tag tracker: Raiders tag Josh Jacobs, the NFL's rushing leader. Just nine tight ends are enshrined, and Kelce's game leans more toward receiving than any of them. He also earned two major awards: Defensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year the following season. Gates, a former college basketball player, had one of the greatest careers for an undrafted player, logging 16 seasons with the Chargers. Published: August 24, 2021. Likely (70% to 99%): RB Ezekiel Elliott, G Zack Martin, OT Tyron Smith. More on the Ring of Honor found on the team website. Moving to a higher-profile, more successful team will help Ramsey's chances of drawing national attention, although he wasn't close to Stephon Gilmore or Tre'Davious White a year ago. Returning to form and earning a seventh Pro Bowl nod in his first season with the Ravens got Thomas back on track. Twelve of the 29 Hall-eligible players who have started their careers with three consecutive Pro Bowl nods have made it to Canton. Or write about sports? Mahomes' rsum -- a league MVP and Super Bowl MVP -- is usually enough to get a player into the Hall of Fame, let alone doing it over two seasons as a starter. So Johnson still has plenty of time for his credentials to be debated by the 49-person selection committee. Finish reading this entire article absolutely FREE in our app. He looked to be firmly on a Hall trajectory at that point, but over the ensuing five seasons, he has just one Pro Bowl appearance. Work to do (10% to 39%): RB Derrick Henry, OT Taylor Lewan, DE Vic Beasley Jr., S Kevin Byard. If James gets back there this season, he might even be able to jump into the Likely category. Hekker's case is interesting. Buckner made the Pro Bowl in 2018, but he was otherwise underappreciated during his four seasons in the Bay Area. He might not make it on the first ballot, but he should make it eventually. He was excellent in his third season, but since then, his production has roughly been in line with that of Robby Anderson. Lock (100%): WR Larry Fitzgerald. Hightower has made huge plays in two Super Bowls, having stuffed Marshawn Lynch at the 1-yard line and strip-sacked Matt Ryan, but he has rarely gotten the regular-season attention he deserves. Things would be different if he had actually won the MVP award or been the quarterback who ran the Eagles through the playoffs in 2017. Wide receiver, Arizona Cardinals Larry Fitzgerald's career stats: 1,432 receptions for 17,492 yards and 121 touchdowns One of the greatest wide receivers of all time, and certainly among the most dominant of his era, Fitzgerald will likely be a first-ballot Hall of Famer sometime around 2026. DT | LB | CB | Safety A score of 100 is around the average modern-era inductee. Dan Orlovsky denounces the NFL Network's Top 100 players for 2020 for excluding Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz. Giants fans would be happy if Thomas solidified a position that has been a mess since Will Beatty tore his pec in 2015. Greg Rajan is the senior editor for Texas Sports Nation, the Houston Chronicle's sports website, and also curates the daily TXSN newsletter and writes about sports media. He doesn't need that sort of individual production to make it to the Hall of Fame, but the guys who made it in without a single first-team All-Pro appearance needed something else. I'll do a little bit of projecting here and there, given historical aging curves and what we know about each player's injury history, but this is almost entirely about what each player has done so far. At the same time, no tight end in history has more than four 1,000-yard seasons over their respective careers, and Kelce has just run off four consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns. Only nine players have done that in league history; outside of Green, the only player of the bunch who isn't in the Hall of Fame or a lock to get in is offensive tackle Richmond Webb, who played a much less notable position. By Paul Mclane . With their city hosting the Final Four, the Cougars don't shy from national title talk. He followed that by posting a passer rating of 135.3 in the playoffs, which was the second-best mark in league history for a quarterback with at least 75 attempts. Browns star left tackle Joe Thomas and Jets greats Joe . McCardell and Smith dubbed "Thunder . Work to do (10% to 39%): WR Davante Adams, OT David Bakhtiari, LB Za'Darius Smith. Za'Darius Smith might have been the best pass-rusher in the league last season and has been great over the past two years on a snap-by-snap basis, but he turns 28 in September. The only player in the Hall of Fame primarily for his work as a punter is Ray Guy, and you could make a case that Hekker is on that track. Many of the modern-era players to whom hes statistically comparable played well into their 30s. Heres what you need to know. Pro Football Reference's Hall of Fame monitor ranks Edelman 110th among wide receivers, and that gives him credit for winning three Super Bowls. Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. He turned 32 on Friday, and while there could be more left in the tank, he probably needs another Pro Bowl season or two to ensure he makes it. Please see our Contributors and Sources page for data source details. Since there have been only 346 people elected to the Hall of Fame (some of whom aren't even players), we don't always have great measures or estimates for what players at each given position have to do to make it. If he can stay healthy, he's probably going to retire in the top 10 for career passing yardage, but will that really be enough to get him in without more individual awards or team success? Lock (100%): TE Jason Witten. But history tells us that's a lot to ask. While Pro Bowls and All-Pro awards are hardly gospel, they're the best measure we have of how league observers valued a particular player in his time. Witten is also the only Hall of Fame candidate on the Raiders' roster. I'd like to see a bigger sample before I treat that rate as gospel, and players such as DeAngelo Hall and Everson Walls had long careers without making it to the Hall, but Lattimore is off to a promising start. If he can keep this level of play up for three more seasons, Jordan could get in. If Kelce can earn that nod in 2020, that might be enough to get him in. That might bode well for Suggs case, especially with the premium placed on pass rushers in the modern NFL. Tucker is only nine years in, and while he can kick for a long time if he stays healthy, asking anyone in the NFL to do anything for 13 more seasons is risky. Rodgers is a three-time All-Pro, a member of the 2010s All-Decade Team and so much more. The 2010 No. Ranking NFL offensive weapons You probably dont need me to tell you that in 2018 Moss became the most recent receiver to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Likely (70% to 99%): OT Jason Peters. Of the 16 Hall-eligible first-rounders who were first-team All-Pros as rookies, nine are enshrined. Harold Carmichael finished his career with 590 receptions and 79 touchdowns. To contrast with a Hall of Famer, Derrick Brooks had six Pro Bowls and three All-Pro appearances by this point. He has eight Pro Bowl appearances, but he has never been a first-team All-Pro, never really been a viable pick as the best quarterback in football and has a total of four MVP votes across 14 seasons as a starter. Jones should make up some of that difference in 2020, and after Fitzgerald retires, he should be able to challenge the Cardinals great for that second spot. After being retired for five years, players maintain modern-era eligibility for 20 years, after which their cases go to the seniors committee. Elliott should be a prohibitive favorite to get in. He deserves it. If Evans goes his entire career without gaining widespread notoriety or making a memorable run in the playoffs even if he has a long and steadily productive career and is regarded as one of the top receivers of his generation his chances to make the Hall of Fame will be materially diminished. Disputed loan at center of Commanders probe, Picking the top bounce-back candidates for all 32 NFL teams, Football historians talk about the game in a previous pandemic, Ranking the NFL's top 25 prospects: Young players who could break out in 2020, last attempted something like this column in June 2016, 42.6% of voters thought Rivers was a Hall of Famer, honor his request and trade the 25-year-old, trading a first-rounder to the Bills in 2009. Do you have a sports website? Seymour made it to seven Pro Bowls and three All-Pro teams and hasn't made it to the Hall of Fame, but Thomas was more conspicuous at safety and was a key member of a legendary defense. . His case is very strong for a first-ballot election. Regardless of age, Evans has had an impressive start to his career. No offensive lineman is ever a lock when guys like Faneca still aren't enshrined, but Smith plays the most prominent position on the line for the most popular team in the league. Of the nine corners who have debuted since the NFL-AFL merger and made the Hall of Fame, just two had been a first-team All-Pro by their third season, which puts White in good company alongside Rod Woodson and then-corner Ronnie Lott. Goff took a major step backward in 2019 and doesn't appear to be on the same level as the other top quarterbacks in the conference. Gilmore wasn't on track to become a Hall of Famer before he joined the Patriots, having made one Pro Bowl across his first five seasons in Buffalo, but he has made back-to-back first-team All-Pro teams and then won Defensive Player of the Year last season. I mentioned the math for quarterbacks in the Bengals section; in Garrett's case, four of 26 non-QBs taken with the first overall pick since the merger have made it to the Hall. Work to do (10% to 39%): WR Adam Thielen, LB Anthony Barr. Texans great Andre Johnson fell short of election to the Hall of Fame again this year in his second time as a modern-era finalist. Byard was a first-team All-Pro in 2017 when he led the league with eight picks, but despite playing at an upper-echelon level over the ensuing two seasons, he hasn't received the same consideration. Astros great Craig Biggio had to wait until his third time on the ballot to be voted to the Baseball Hall of Fame, and fell an agonizing two votes shy the previous year. Lewan has three Pro Bowls. Likely (70% to 99%): TE Rob Gronkowski. In the running (40% to 69%): DE Danielle Hunter, S Harrison Smith. Jackson does an incredible job of avoiding hits and getting out of bounds, but there's naturally going to be questions about whether a quarterback can run the ball 10 times per game in the modern NFL and have a 15-year career as a starter. Roethlisberger won two Super Bowls with the Steelers and spent 18 seasons as Pittsburghs starter. He is right on the borderline between the "Work to do" and "In the running" tiers. Carmichael was one of the best wide receivers of his era. Green. Work to do (10% to 39%): QB Carson Wentz, TE Zach Ertz, CB Darius Slay. McShay's favorite pick for all 32 teams Even if Hopkins takes a step backward without Deshaun Watson, he's probably just a couple of Pro Bowls from getting in. 1 pick and winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, but that hasn't historically been a helpful combination. Warren Moon played until he was 44. Meanwhile on offense, receiver Allen Robinson's three-year, $46.5 million contract (signed last spring) comes with $15.2 million guaranteed in 2023. Guy got some help because the Raiders drafted him with their first-round pick, while Hekker gets extra attention because of his propensity for fakes. Larry Fitzgerald won't be suiting up for the Arizona Cardinals for the start of the season, but the future Hall of Fame wide receiver stopped just short Friday of announcing his retirement. Hightower and McCourty have made only two Pro Bowls each, and while they'll get a bump for their Super Bowl rings, it's tough to imagine them getting in when guys like Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel didn't make it from the first era of Pats Super Bowl winners.